Dividend Increase: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Last Thursday, JNJ announced their predictable annual dividend increase.  The new dividend is $0.80 per share quarterly.  Representing a 6.66% increase from the previous $0.75.

Factoring in the new dividend, the payout ratio for JNJ will be a tad bit over 50%, so there is plenty of room for future dividends increases, even if earnings growth slowed.

If there were such a thing as a StockCrush (kinda like a man crush, but on a stock instead), JNJ would be one of them.  This increase is the 54th consecutive year of dividend increases and  represents a current yield of 2.83% (not bad).  The stock rarely has negative surprises, outperforms the S&P500 over the long term and has a lower beta (outperforms and lower risk-the holy grail of investing), and pays you a nice growing and safe dividend to wait.  The company is just plain and boring, so you rarely get Wall Street analyst coming out talking about it.  This stock just flies under the radar.  Boring is sexy when you’re crushing it, and that’s exactly what JNJ does, silently crush it:

JNJ vs S&P500 past decade

JNJ vs S&P500 past decade

Going back to 1970, it’s just not even funny.

JNJ vs S&P500 since 1970

JNJ vs S&P500 since 1970

My first purchase of JNJ took place back on 8/13/2003 with some 401(k) rollover money from my college job.  I paid 50.70 per share at the time.  The dividend back then was $0.24 per share representing a yield of 1.89%.  Today the stock is trading just shy of their all time high at $112.97 and pays their new quarterly dividend of $0.80 (current yield 2.83%).

This means my total return on the stock is 122% or 6.35% per year annualized (not including dividends), and the annualized growth of my dividend income has been 9.70% or a total of 233%.  My yield on cost is 6.31%.  If my pay increased at those levels during my working years, I may have continued working.  NOT!

Me when someone says they are retiring in their 60's

Me when someone says they are retiring in their 60’s

With all that said, I won’t be adding any JNJ right now.  They are trading just off their all time high.  I have a simple rule on JNJ.  Buy on the dips.  But what do you mean a dip?  Last fall JNJ broke below $100.  I asked one of our assistants, “Hey, do you or your husband invest anything outside of your retirement plan?”  Off course the answer is no.  So I say “You can hear me on the phone talking to customers.  You know how crazy I sound.  But, do it.  JNJ is a buy on the dip company.  Buy it and forget about it.”  The dip was dropping into the low to mid 90’s for no reason.  I hit her up with all the same info above about slow and steady appreciation, long term market outperformance, PHAT (pretty hot and tempting) dividend growth.  (As recent as this past February, JNJ presented another opportunity as well.)

So, I follow my own rule, buy JNJ on the dips and have been doing so for years.  I will never sell this stock in my lifetime.  It is one of my 5 main stocks that every long term investor should have in their portfolio and one of my main individual holdings.  You get a well run company able to consistently grow earnings, that earnings growth flows over into the growing dividend, and all is reflected in the market beating return.  For someone looking to live off dividend income in their retirement years, this is a great holding.  My dividend income holding the stock for the last 13 years has more than tripled (233%), and I have no reason to expect the dividend income to not at least double over the next decade.  That kind of dividend growth far outpaces my conservative inflation rate (I use 4% to create a high hurdle), so my income will grow at a faster pace than expenses.  Each year, I will be better off than the previous year when looking from a cash flow perspective, with out lifting a finger.

So reader, which of your holdings do you have a StockCrush on?

SCHWING!!! What JNJ makes me feel like

SCHWING!!! What JNJ makes me feel like

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